{"id":6527,"date":"2026-05-08T11:35:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-08T11:35:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/08\/ukraine-may-have-turned-tide-of-russian-territorial-gains-says-think-tank\/"},"modified":"2026-05-08T11:35:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-08T11:35:35","slug":"ukraine-may-have-turned-tide-of-russian-territorial-gains-says-think-tank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/08\/ukraine-may-have-turned-tide-of-russian-territorial-gains-says-think-tank\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank"},"content":{"rendered":"<div aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\">\n<p>After slowing Russia\u2019s rate of advance over the past several months, Ukraine may have tipped the scales in April and recaptured more of its land than it lost, according to an analysis of battlefield positions.<\/p>\n<p>The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said it had observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometres (45 square miles) during the month.<\/p>\n<section>\n<h2>Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n<p><span>list of 4 items<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>list 1 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/5\/russian-attack-kills-five-at-ukraines-naftogaz-gas-facility\">Russia kills 27 in \u2018senseless\u2019 strikes on Ukraine days before ceasefire<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 2 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/video\/newsfeed\/2026\/5\/6\/russian-drone-hits-kindergarten-in-ukraine\">Russian drone hits kindergarten in Ukraine<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 3 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/6\/russia-tells-diplomats-to-leave-kyiv-in-case-moscow-launches-mass-strikes\">Russia tells diplomats to leave Kyiv in case Moscow launches mass strikes<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 4 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/8\/amid-ukraines-daring-assaults-russia-scales-back-victory-day-celebrations\">Amid Ukraine\u2019s daring assaults, Russia scales back Victory Day celebrations<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n<p>That figure counted only territory firmly held by each side, not what it called \u201cgrey zones\u201d, where both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers held positions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRussian forces have been using infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes,\u201d the ISW said. \u201cRussian forces, however, do not control these infiltration areas.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The ISW has observed a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/4\/10\/ukraine-says-russia-suffers-record-losses-of-soldiers\">progressive slowing<\/a> of the Russian rate of advance by at least two-thirds over the past 18 months.<\/p>\n<p>It found that Russian forces seized an average of 2.9sq km (1.1sq miles) a day in the first third of 2026, compared with an average of 9.76sq km (3.77sq miles) in the same period in 2025.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4549451\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4549451\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/INTERACTIVE-WHO-CONTROLS-WHAT-IN-UKRAINE-1778056072.png?quality=80\" alt=\"INTERACTIVE-WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN UKRAINE-1778056072\" data-interactive=\"true\" fetchpriority=\"low\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4549451\">(Al Jazeera)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Russian President Vladimir Putin has prioritised capturing the remainder of Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, which contains a \u201cfortress belt\u201d of heavily fortified cities, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Konstiantynivka and Druzhkivka.<\/p>\n<p>Russian assaults here \u201cnoticeably increased\u201d in April, said Ukrainian commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii.<\/p>\n<p>Moscow has claimed to be gradually overrunning Konstiantynivka, but the ISW observed that it had \u201cinfiltrated in 10.14 percent of Kostiantynivka and advanced in only 0.7 percent of its eastern outskirts\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine also said Russia suffered higher casualties than its rate of recruitment could replenish for the fifth month running.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn April, 35,203 Russian soldiers were eliminated or seriously wounded,\u201d said Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, adding that Russia was \u201cgradually drowning in losses\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained Russian documents reporting that 62 percent of casualties were deaths \u2013 a higher rate than Ukraine or anyone else had previously assumed.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4549449\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4549449\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/INTERACTIVE-WHO-CONTROLS-WHAT-IN-EASTERN-UKRAINE-copy-1778056042.png?quality=80\" alt=\"INTERACTIVE-WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN EASTERN UKRAINE copy-1778056042\" data-interactive=\"true\" fetchpriority=\"low\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4549449\">(Al Jazeera)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>It is not clear when Ukrainian forces reached that level of lethality, but it seems to be a recent development.<\/p>\n<p>Fedorov said on May 6 that last year \u201cRussia was losing about 14,000 soldiers per month,\u201d meaning deaths, since total casualties averaged 34,833. That would suggest recent advances in Ukrainian tactics.<\/p>\n<p>Zelenskyy recently said Ukraine aimed to double down on mid-range attacks in the Russian rear, striking supplies before they can be brought to bear on the battlefield.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn April, the number of strikes over 20km (12 miles) was twice as high as in March, and four times as high as in February,\u201d said Fedorov.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-revenue-war\">The revenue war<\/h2>\n<p>Ukraine struck several refineries and oil facilities during the past week as part of a strategy of depriving Russia of export revenue.<\/p>\n<p>It struck the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea for the fourth time in two weeks on May 1, and the Perm refinery 1,000km (620 miles) inside Russia on the same night.<\/p>\n<p>On May 2, Ukraine used surface drones to raid two Russian oil tankers outside the offloading port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. On the same night, Zelenskyy said the Ukraine Security Service (SBU) struck a missile carrier, a patrol boat and a tanker in the port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea, also damaging the oil terminal.<\/p>\n<p>On May 5, Ukraine struck the Kirishinefteorgsintez in the Leningrad region. The Reuters news agency reported that the refinery stopped operations after three of its four distillation towers were damaged.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4549444\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4549444\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/INTERACTIVE-WHO-CONTROLS-WHAT-IN-SOUTHERN-UKRAINE-1778056022.png?quality=80\" alt=\"INTERACTIVE-WHO CONTROLS WHAT IN SOUTHERN UKRAINE-1778056022\" data-interactive=\"true\" fetchpriority=\"low\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4549444\">(Al Jazeera)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ukraine has also targeted military equipment.<\/p>\n<p>Zelenskyy said Flamingo drones had covered a distance of 1,500km (930 miles) to strike a manufacturer of navigation modules for the Russian navy, air force and rocket forces in Cheboksary on May 5.<\/p>\n<p>Ukraine also recently struck several Su-57 fighter jets and Su-34 bombers at the Shagol Airfield in Chelyabinsk, more than 1,600km (994 miles) inside Russia.<\/p>\n<p>Russia and Ukraine have given conflicting reports on the damage to Russian oil revenues.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBy the most conservative estimates, the aggressor state has lost at least $7 bn since the beginning of the year solely from our effective sanctions against the Russian oil industry and refining: From hits, downtime, and delays in shipments,\u201d Zelenskyy said on May 1.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg reported on April 30 that average output per refinery had dropped to 4.69 million barrels a day, the lowest since 2009.<\/p>\n<p>But Russia had a different assessment, wrote the independent Russian outlet Meduza. The Ministry of Finance on May 6 said mineral extraction revenues doubled to $12bn in April relative to March. Of this, $10bn was from oil, whose price has soared during the US-Israel war on Iran.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4555477\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4555477\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/2026-05-03T121506Z_1324584568_RC2L1LAV953O_RTRMADP_3_UKRAINE-CRISIS-ATTACK-CHORNOMORSK-1778232556.jpg?w=770&#038;resize=770%2C550&#038;quality=80\" alt=\"A resident walks at the site of a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the city of Chornomorsk, Odesa region, Ukraine May 3, 2026. REUTERS\/Nina Liashonok TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY\" fetchpriority=\"low\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4555477\">A resident walks at the site of a Russian drone attack, amid Russia\u2019s war on Ukraine, near the city of Chornomorsk, Odesa region, Ukraine, May 3, 2026 [Nina Liashonok\/Reuters]<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently told a Kremlin reporter he expected May oil revenues to be $2.7bn higher.<\/p>\n<p>Fedorov also raised the alarm, saying Russia\u2019s windfall from high oil prices was estimated at $150m a day, and could amount to $40bn in 2026.<\/p>\n<p>It was unclear whether Zelenskyy\u2019s $7bn figure was an estimate of revenue deprivations over and above that windfall.<\/p>\n<p>Meduza wrote that Moscow would spend half of April\u2019s oil revenue subsidising oil companies \u201cto keep gasoline prices low and to modernise and repair oil refineries\u201d, suggesting Ukraine was still taking a toll.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"diplomacy-triumphs\">Diplomacy triumphs<\/h2>\n<p>Ukraine has faced opposition to its European Union funding and membership bid from EU members Hungary and Slovakia, but in the past week, its relationship with both countries improved.<\/p>\n<p>Zelenskyy said on May 2 he had invited Slovakia\u2019s Prime Minister Robert Fico to visit Kyiv and had received an invitation to Bratislava.<\/p>\n<p>Fico had vetoed Ukrainian talks to join the EU in June 2025, but relented in September for reasons he never explained.<\/p>\n<p>Hungary\u2019s former Prime Minister Viktor Orban had also vetoed those talks, and his successor, Peter Magyar, has not yet lifted that veto, saying he will hold a referendum on the matter.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, Magyar returned to Ukraine\u2019s Oschadbank $82m in cash and valuables Orban had seized in March on suspicion that the seven Ukrainians carrying it were money-laundering. Zelenskyy hailed it as a \u201cconstructive and civilised step\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>But unblocking Ukraine\u2019s accession may be easier said than done. A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) found that 54 percent of Hungarians still oppose the move. Majorities also continue to oppose Hungary\u2019s participation in EU financial aid to Kyiv, as they continue to oppose the shipment of weapons to Ukraine via Hungary.<\/p>\n<p>Hungarian voters \u201cmight be underestimating how important opening Ukraine\u2019s accession negotiations are for Hungary\u2019s European partners\u201d, the ECFR said, \u201cor they are simply not linking it to Hungary normalising its relations with Brussels.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After slowing Russia\u2019s rate of advance over the past several months, Ukraine may have tipped the scales in April and recaptured more of its land than it lost, according to an analysis of battlefield positions. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said it had observed evidence that Russian forces suffered &#8230; <a title=\"Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/08\/ukraine-may-have-turned-tide-of-russian-territorial-gains-says-think-tank\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Ukraine may have turned tide of Russian territorial gains, says think tank\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6528,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-travel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6527"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6527\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6528"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}