{"id":6867,"date":"2026-05-25T14:35:26","date_gmt":"2026-05-25T14:35:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/25\/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war\/"},"modified":"2026-05-25T14:35:26","modified_gmt":"2026-05-25T14:35:26","slug":"could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/25\/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div aria-live=\"polite\" aria-atomic=\"true\">\n<p>China and India are increasingly turning to Brazil to make up\u00a0for\u00a0lost oil supplies as the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>With oil harder to access and Russian supply largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are scrambling for crude from suppliers seen as safer and more reliable.<\/p>\n<section>\n<h2>Recommended Stories <\/h2>\n<p><span>list of 4 items<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span>list 1 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/sports\/2026\/5\/25\/messi-at-the-world-cup-inter-miami-injury-update-substitution\">Will Messi play in the World Cup after his Inter Miami injury scare?<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 2 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/video\/newsfeed\/2026\/5\/25\/abandoned-flotilla-boat-washes-ashore-in-egypt-with-gaza-aid\">Abandoned flotilla boat washes ashore in Egypt with Gaza aid<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 3 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/features\/2026\/5\/25\/whats-inside-the-kaaba-and-what-covers-it-the-story-of-the-kiswah\">What\u2019s inside the Kaaba and what covers it? The story of the Kiswah<\/a><\/li>\n<li><span>list 4 of 4<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/25\/israel-kills-three-in-attacks-on-lebanon-issues-more-displacement-orders\">Israel kills three in attacks on Lebanon, issues more displacement orders<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span>end of list<\/span><\/section>\n<p>Brazil, which is already one of the world\u2019s biggest oil exporters, has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries.<\/p>\n<p>Sumit Ritolia, a specialist in modelling refinery and oil markets at Kpler, told Al Jazeera: \u201cThe disruption caused by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has increased the importance of Brazil as a marginal crude supplier to Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina and India in particular have increased purchases of Brazilian crude to secure barrels that are not exposed to Gulf shipping disruptions,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts say Brazil cannot replace the Middle East as Asia\u2019s main oil supplier. However, as shipping risks rise in the Gulf amid Iran\u2019s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the corresponding naval blockade on Iranian ports by the United States, its oil has become increasingly attractive to refiners seeking to avoid supply shocks.<\/p>\n<p>Asian countries imported about 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Brazil in 2025, according to data supplied to Al Jazeera by trade intelligence firm Kpler. That rose to roughly 1.8 million bpd between January and May this year, highlighting Brazil\u2019s growing role in Asia\u2019s efforts to diversify away from the Gulf.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"how-much-more-oil-is-brazil-exporting\">How much more oil is Brazil exporting?<\/h2>\n<p>Brazil had already been increasing oil production in major offshore developments before tensions escalated in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>According to Kpler data, Brazil was producing about 3.77 million bpd of oil in 2025. Between January and May, this rose to an average of 4.06 million bpd, with 4.11 million bpd in May.<\/p>\n<p>But Ritolia said the increase is not just down to a rapid wartime production surge.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSince March 2026, Brazil\u2019s production has increased only marginally by around 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day, indicating limited short-term flexibility to rapidly ramp up supply in response to global disruptions,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The real difference is where its oil is going, he explained.<\/p>\n<p>Petrobras, Brazil\u2019s state oil company, has increasingly redirected exports towards Asia, where refiners are paying more for crude that does not pass through the Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>More than 60 percent of Petrobras exports are now heading to China, while exports to the US have reportedly fallen to zero from about 60,000bpd in March, according to oilprice.com.<\/p>\n<p>The shift is beginning to benefit Brazil\u2019s economy. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/en\/publications\/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2026_d4623013-en.html?adestraproject=What%27s%20New%20at%20OECD&#038;utm_campaign=What%27s%20New%20-%20March%202026&#038;utm_content=IEO-2026-cta&#038;utm_term=com&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_source=Adestra\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OECD<\/a> reported in March that rising crude prices are expected to support Brazil\u2019s trade balance, while the country\u2019s Ministry of Finance estimates that Brent crude reaching $100 per barrel would generate revenue equivalent to almost 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) above current 2026 budget projections.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"who-is-buying-more-brazilian-oil\">Who is buying more Brazilian oil?<\/h2>\n<p>Demand from China is driving much of the increase in Brazilian exports, with Chinese imports of Brazilian crude averaging about 1.316 million bpd between January and May this year, compared with about 704,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler data.<\/p>\n<p>In dollar terms, official data compiled by the Brazil-China Business Council shows that the value of Brazil\u2019s crude exports to China surged by almost 95 percent to $7.2bn in the first quarter of this year.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, India has also sharply increased purchases, with its imports averaging about 238,000bpd between January and May, up from roughly 100,000bpd in 2025, according to Kpler. In April, Brazil became India\u2019s fourth-largest crude supplier.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina and India, along with other Asian countries, need non-Hormuz alternatives that are politically safer and physically available,\u201d Ritolia said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBrazil\u2019s medium-sweet pre-salt grades fit many Asian refinery slates, and Asian buyers are competing for barrels not exposed to Gulf shipping risk.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>India\u2019s demand is also being driven by rising fuel consumption at home, unlike China, which has pivoted more heavily to electric vehicles (EVs).<\/p>\n<p>India also has less flexibility to absorb a prolonged disruption through strategic reserves, meaning refiners have a stronger incentive to keep crude flowing if supplies are available and profitable.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-about-countries-beyond-china-and-india\">What about countries beyond China and India?<\/h2>\n<p>Brazil is also looking to deepen energy ties elsewhere in Asia.<\/p>\n<p>Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said last week that Brazil is \u201cready to contribute to the energy safety of Japan\u201d through increased crude exports, adding that Petrobras was prepared to expand its presence there.<\/p>\n<p>The comments came as Brazil steps up diplomatic and economic engagement across Asia, including with South Korea, Japan and other Southeast Asian countries.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva visited South Korea, where both countries agreed to upgrade bilateral relations to a \u201cstrategic partnership\u201d and signed a series of agreements aimed at expanding trade and economic cooperation.<\/p>\n<p>With the Strait of Hormuz still partly blocked, Brazil has become more strategically valuable far beyond the Americas, at least for now, according to experts.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"is-brazilian-crude-a-good-replacement-for-gulf-oil\">Is Brazilian crude a good replacement for Gulf oil?<\/h2>\n<p>Two of Brazil\u2019s main export grades \u2013 known as Tupi and Buzios \u2013 are considered \u201cmedium-sweet\u201d crude oils, meaning they contain relatively low sulphur levels and can be processed efficiently into fuels such as diesel and jet fuel.<\/p>\n<p>That makes them attractive to Asian refineries trying to maintain fuel production amid tighter global supply.<\/p>\n<p>US President Donald Trump has also been touting <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/22\/can-venezuelan-oil-save-india-amid-the-hormuz-energy-crisis\">Venezuelan oil<\/a> to other countries, but this is a very heavy, \u201csour\u201d oil that many refineries in Asia are unable to process. Washington took effective control of Venezuela\u2019s oil industry following the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas by US forces in January.<\/p>\n<p>Brazilian oil offers supply security for China, while for India, it also helps refinery economics as domestic fuel demand continues to rise.<\/p>\n<p>However, while Brazilian crude is a better grade suited for Asian refineries compared with Venezuela\u2019s, it is still not a perfect substitute for Gulf oil.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBrazilian crude can replace some medium-sweet Gulf barrels and reduce Hormuz exposure, especially for China and India,\u201d Ritolia said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBut it is not a like-for-like replacement for all Gulf grades.\u201d<img decoding=\"async\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/INTERACTIVE-Different-types-of-crude-oil-March-13-2026-1773391867.png?quality=80\" alt=\"INTERACTIVE - Different types of crude oil - March 13, 2026-1773391867\" data-interactive=\"true\" fetchpriority=\"low\"><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"what-other-constraints-exist-on-brazilian-oil\">What other constraints exist on Brazilian oil?<\/h2>\n<p>Distance is a major issue for Brazilian exports of oil to Asia. Shipping crude from Brazil to China can take roughly 50 days \u2013 far longer than Gulf routes \u2013 increasing freight costs and tying up tankers in an already strained shipping market.<\/p>\n<p>Russia could also become a stronger competitor later this year as Arctic shipping routes reopen seasonally. Cargoes travelling from Russia\u2019s Arctic terminals to China can take almost half the time of the Brazil-China route.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, the US also announced another 30-day extension of a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/5\/19\/us-extends-sanctions-waiver-on-russian-oil-why-it-matters\">sanctions waiver<\/a> on Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers at sea.<\/p>\n<p>That could make floating Russian crude more attractive to Asian buyers in the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBrazil helps diversify crude imports for Asian countries, but its role as an alternative supplier remains capped by Brazil\u2019s overall crude supply growth, freight economics, and competition from buyers in Europe and the US,\u201d Ritolia said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs a result, Brazil is a meaningful marginal alternative for Asia during periods of supply disruption, but it is unlikely to become a structural replacement for Middle Eastern crude in the long term.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China and India are increasingly turning to Brazil to make up\u00a0for\u00a0lost oil supplies as the fallout from the US-Israel war on Iran continues to disrupt energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz. With oil harder to access and Russian supply largely constrained by sanctions, Asian buyers are scrambling for crude from suppliers seen as safer &#8230; <a title=\"Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/05\/25\/could-brazilian-oil-emerge-as-one-of-the-big-winners-of-the-iran-war\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Could Brazilian oil emerge as one of the big winners of the Iran war?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-travel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6867","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6867"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6867\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6868"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6867"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6867"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6867"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}