{"id":7745,"date":"2026-07-08T16:35:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:35:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/08\/oil-for-unity-what-is-the-us-mediation-plan-in-libya\/"},"modified":"2026-07-08T16:35:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T16:35:41","slug":"oil-for-unity-what-is-the-us-mediation-plan-in-libya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/2026\/07\/08\/oil-for-unity-what-is-the-us-mediation-plan-in-libya\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil for unity: What is the US mediation plan in Libya?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Fifteen years after NATO\u2019s intervention in a Libyan uprising set the stage for a prolonged period of chaos and political crisis, the United States is leading a diplomatic push for a reunification plan in the North African country.<\/p>\n

Led by Massad Boulos, US President Donald Trump\u2019s top adviser on Arab, Middle Eastern and African affairs \u2013 he is also the father of Trump\u2019s son-in-law Michael Boulos \u2013 the plan aims to turn a growing financial crisis in Libya into an incentive for warring factions to cooperate.<\/p>\n

Libya has been split between rival eastern and western administrations since a civil war broke out after the 2011 NATO operation helped topple longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what we know about the US plan for Libya:<\/p>\n

The US is pushing to unify rival factions in Libya.<\/p>\n

Libya remains politically and militarily split between two primary rival administrations and their allied militias: the United Nations-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and an eastern-based administration aligned with Khalifa Haftar\u2019s Libyan Arab Armed Forces, commonly known as the Libyan National Army (LNA).<\/p>\n

Starting in 2020, most formal mediation has been led by the UN, particularly the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), but the US has become a key behind\u2011the\u2011scenes broker.<\/p>\n

In May 2021, it appointed Ambassador Richard Norland as special envoy to Libya to shuttle between rival factions and regional capitals and lead high-level diplomatic efforts in the country.<\/p>\n

During Trump\u2019s second term, that role has passed to Massad Boulos, whose son Michael is married to the US president\u2019s youngest daughter, Tiffany.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe US is leading a negotiation to create a unified government among Libya\u2019s rival elites,\u201d Tim Eaton, a senior research fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the US public messaging is that this is about creating an inclusive government, their efforts really hinge on getting the Haftar and Dbeibah families to formally agree to be part of the same government,\u201d said Abdul Hamid Dbeibah<\/a>, a businessman-turned-politician and the prime minister in the internationally recognised Libyan government.<\/p>\n

What is the situation in Libya?<\/h2>\n

Beginning on March 19, 2011, a NATO-led coalition, including the US, United Kingdom and France, conducted an air campaign in Libya that provided essential support for rebels fighting Gaddafi\u2019s regime. Gaddafi had been in power since 1969.<\/p>\n

After rebel fighters captured and summarily killed Gaddafi in October 2011, Libya was left without a viable successor state. This left a power vacuum. Libya has since had multiple competing governments, militias and armed groups.<\/p>\n

Who are all the different factions and what do they all want?<\/h2>\n

The GNU is based in western Libya and is the official government of the country, recognised by the UN and most countries.<\/p>\n

Despite that diplomatic recognition, it does not hold sway over vast parts of the country.<\/p>\n

The Haftar-led LNA controls the east, including the strategically critical port city of Benghazi. It has historically received support from the United Arab Emirates and Russia.<\/p>\n

With Libya essentially divided, its central bank has been trying to finance two parallel governments.<\/p>\n

What do we know about the US plan?<\/h2>\n

Boulos has been shuttling to Libya since 2025 early in Trump\u2019s current term. But the details of his plan only became public through an interview he gave to the Financial Times in June.<\/p>\n

At the heart of the Trump initiative is a promise: If the two warring factions come together to try to jointly govern Libya, the US would encourage its companies to invest in Libya\u2019s massive oilfields. Because the UN recognises the government in Tripoli, any oil deal would need to be signed with it. But it is Haftar\u2019s forces that control the actual part of Libya that is home to its oilfields and terminals. Only if they work together can international investment enter Libya\u2019s oil sector.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Libya has made it clear that it cannot sustainably continue to finance\u00a0both governments.<\/p>\n

That combination of a looming crisis and the promise of an opportunity is what, analysts said, Boulos and Trump appear to be hoping will persuade the two Libyan factions to come together.<\/p>\n

Leaked details of Boulos\u2019s plan also suggest that the US has proposed a power-sharing agreement: Dbeibah would continue to lead the government while Saddam Haftar, son of Khalifa Haftar and the LNA\u2019s army chief, would in effect serve as president.<\/p>\n

The US has several motives to mediate in Libya.<\/p>\n

For one, the country has large oil and gas reserves \u2013 the largest proven oil reserves in all of Africa. In January, Dbeibah announced that the country had broken a 12-year oil production record last year, producing 1.37 million barrels per day.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor special adviser Massad Boulos, Libya appears to offer a theatre in which political stability could provide a springboard for increased US commercial engagement in Libya\u2019s oil sector,\u201d Eaton said.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf done right, there is a win-win here, as long-term investment from major international oil companies would benefit Libya.\u201d<\/p>\n

That oil is also very strategically located. Libya loads its oil on tankers on the Mediterranean Sea that can reach Italy in two days. At a time when the US-Israeli war on Iran and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced the world to consider alternative routes<\/a> to source energy, unblocking Libya\u2019s resources could help Europe and the West in particular. Libya\u2019s light and sweet grades of oil match what European refineries are best equipped to handle.<\/p>\n

Ending the crisis in Libya would also serve the West\u2019s desire to curb irregular migration via the country into Europe.<\/p>\n

\u201cHowever, the question is whether Boulos\u2019s plan would actually provide the stability needed or whether it will simply entrench deeply flawed powerbrokers,\u201d Eaton said, referring to Haftar and Dbeibah. \u201cMost Libyans see such a deal as no recipe for stability and as a return to family rule.\u201d<\/p>\n

Eaton said that so far, the most successful element of the mediation between the Dbeibahs and the Haftars has been the agreement of a unified national budget for 2026.<\/p>\n

This landmark agreement was signed in April, marking the first unified budget<\/a> in Libya in more than a decade.<\/p>\n

\u201cUntil now, there is, however, no agreement on the formation of a unified government.\u201d<\/p>\n

It is believed that Saddam Haftar has expressed his support for the initiative. He met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, DC, last week, Eaton said.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut the Dbeibahs have not yet signed up. Such a deal is fraught with risk for them because of widespread opposition to the Haftars in western Libya,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd, even if they are able to get a deal through, the Dbeibahs would want guarantees that the Haftars will not use the agreement as a springboard to a military takeover of the state. It\u2019s unlikely that the US will provide such a guarantee.\u201d<\/p>\n

A summary of a proposed \u201cLibya reunification plan\u201d shared with the Reuters news agency sets out a 36-month transitional power-sharing arrangement under a body called the Government of National Consensus and Presidential Council.<\/p>\n

Reuters also reported on Monday that Pakistan has joined the mediation efforts. The Reuters report quoted two unnamed Pakistani sources. Al Jazeera has not been able to independently verify this report.<\/p>\n

However, Pakistan\u2019s military chief, Asim Munir, met Saddam Haftar last month in Rawalpindi, a meeting that was followed days later by Haftar\u2019s visit to Washington, DC.<\/p>\n

The US Department of State said in a statement at the time that Rubio welcomed Libyan leaders\u2019 efforts to overcome divisions and reaffirmed US support for Libyan unity.<\/p>\n

While analysts view Pakistan as a secondary player in Libya \u2013 where the US, UAE, Turkiye and Egypt have for years wrestled for influence \u2013 Islamabad has maintained ties with both sides that other regional actors may be lacking.<\/p>\n

Pakistani officials have pursued defence ties with the eastern-based LNA, including the possible sale of JF-17 fighter jets and Super Mushshak trainer aircraft despite a UN arms embargo.<\/p>\n

But the rival western GNU also recently sought direct talks with Pakistan, according to an unreported document seen by Reuters.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fifteen years after NATO\u2019s intervention in a Libyan uprising set the stage for a prolonged period of chaos and political crisis, the United States is leading a diplomatic push for a reunification plan in the North African country. Led by Massad Boulos, US President Donald Trump\u2019s top adviser on Arab, Middle Eastern and African affairs … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7746,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-travel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7746"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pronews.in\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}